A Peoples Tragedy the Russian Revolution
A notable failure of the provisional government (maybe a common failure mode for centrist govts?) was Karensky's lack of appeal as a leader, especially in comparison to the charismatic Lenin.
The bungled Kornilov affair torpedoed his popularity, also. Combined with Kerensky's 'no enemies on the left' policy, he left his flank wide open for the Bolsheviks to consolidate power.
6/23/23 - the failed Kornilov putch v2. Wagner turning around and heading towards Moscow seems... ?
I am not sure how much paralellism you want to draw between Putin and Karensky, and the current Russian regime and the provisional government. It feels like there is only a passing resemblance.